Building on his initial reflection on round one, Gavin Rae provides an in-depth analysis of Poland’s presidential run-off, where PiS-backed Karol Nawrocki narrowly won — with troubling consequences for democracy, social justice, and the Polish Left.
The election of the Law and Justice (PiS) backed candidate, Karol Nawrocki, as Polish President, has shifted Polish politics further to the right. During the second round of the presidential elections, with a record turnout of 72%, Nawrocki gained 50.8% of the vote, narrowly beating his rival Rafał Trzaskowski from Civic Coalition (KO), who gained 49.11%. This has opened up a new period of political uncertainty in Poland, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk announcing a day after the elections that he will call a vote of confidence for his government in parliament, in an attempt to reassert his administration’s authority. However, the election of Nawrocki will only weaken the government’s position and raises the possibility that, after the next parliamentary elections, due at the latest in 2027, PiS will seek to form a coalition government with the far-right Confederation Party.
Far-Right King-Maker
After the first round of the presidential elections, Confederation’s candidate, Sławomir Mentzen, emerged as the king-maker. Together with the even more extreme candidate, Grzegorz Braun, the far-right together won around 20% of the votes in the first round of the presidential elections. In the run-up to the second round, Mentzen met with both candidates, with Nawrocki agreeing outright to all of his demands, indicating how there is little programmatic or ideological difference between them. Although Trzaskowski only agreed to some of Mentzen’s postulates, he followed up their meeting with a photoshoot of them drinking beer together in a local pub, alongside the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Radosław Sikorski. Trzaskowski’s attempt to lure Mentzen voters was not successful, however, only serving to weaken the electoral alliance that had defeated PiS at the parliamentary elections in 2023.
Trzaskowski was unable to hold together the social coalition that had brought KO, alongside the centrist Third Way and centre-left Lewica, into power in 2023. It should be remembered that PiS still gained more votes than KO in these parliamentary elections, and that the victory of Nawrocki once again confirms that PiS enjoys higher social support than KO in the country. The KO-led coalition government was formed on a wave of optimism and hope, amongst a section of society, for a decisive break from the eight years of PiS rule. However, in less than two years, the government has become extremely unpopular, with 44% of society assessing it negatively, compared to 32% positively. Despite the fact that Poland is enjoying relatively strong economic growth, large sections of society are not feeling the benefits of this success. Furthermore, partially because of former President Duda’s threat of a veto, the government has made no significant progress on issues such as abortion reform, same-sex legal partnerships, and the rule of law. The record of the ruling government hindered Trzaskowski’s campaign and fractured the already loose political alliance that had brought KO into power.
Divided Personalities
Trzaskowski’s campaign focused primarily on the shortcomings of his rival Nawrocki. These included accusations/revelations that Nawrocki had in the past participated in organised football hooligan fights; had unethically acquired a flat from an elderly man; had connections to criminal and far-right gangs; and, when working as a security guard in a hotel, had helped to organise prostitutes for the guests. It was hoped that this would be enough to deter people from voting for Nawrocki and that they would instead place their faith in the bland, although reliable, Trzaskowski.
These elections were not, however, a personality contest. As in many other countries, the more the liberal mainstream derided their opponent, the more it actually hardened his electoral support. He was able to build upon the anger felt towards those in power by those who increasingly feel excluded from the country’s economic growth. Nawrocki voters neither believed nor cared about the aspersions cast against Nawrocki by those connected to a government that is seen as being out of touch with the concerns of society.
An analysis of the election results reveals the social divisions that determined its outcome. Trzaskowski won 73% of those with a higher education, whilst Nawrocki gained 63% of the vote of the electorate with a basic education. 79% of farmers, 68% of manual workers and 65% of the unemployed supported Nawrocki; whilst 65% of directors and managers and 57% of business owners backed Trzaskowski. Nawrocki won 64% of the votes of those living in villages, whilst Trzaskowski gained 66% from the residents of large cities. Also, whilst 54% of women voted for Trzaskowski, 54.3% of men gave their support to Nawrocki. Interestingly, there was very little difference in the vote according to age. This was partly because Nawrocki could win the support of the younger voters who backed Mentzen in the first round, the vast majority of whom switched to voting for Nawrocki. This shows the ground that exists for the Right to grow in Poland and partially explains the changing political strategy (see below) of PiS.
Right-Wing Alliance
Despite the divisions inherent within Polish politics, the two main political blocs have converged over many fundamental issues. Both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have propagated hostility towards migrants and refugees; supported a reduction in taxation; and advocated Poland maintaining, and even increasing, its military spending, which presently stands at almost 5% of GDP. KO’s tactic of copying the far-right’s policies on issues such as migration has inevitably resulted in people choosing to vote for the original version rather than for a poor copy. Policies such as cancelling the right to asylum have further fuelled the anti-migrant atmosphere in Poland, predictably creating the conditions for the far-right to grow.
Changing Strategy
Nawrocki’s election campaign signals how the strategy of PiS is changing. During their two terms in power (2005 to 2015), they mixed Catholic conservatism with elements of progressive, redistributive social spending. Therefore, the PiS governments introduced a new universal child benefit, significantly raised the minimum wage, reduced the pension age, and banned most trade on Sundays. Despite some of the shortcomings of these policies, this was the first time in over two decades that a government had introduced some measures to curb the neo-liberal tide. However, in the recent presidential elections, Nawrocki did not emphasise the pro-social record of PiS, nor strongly counter KO’s liberal economic policies. Nawrocki supported reducing taxation and even introducing a constitutional guarantee that inherited property would not be taxed. Furthermore, his ‘pro-social’ pledges were openly racist and directed against migrants. For example, Nawrocki pledged that: ‘Polish citizens must have priority in queues to see doctors and at clinics. Polish children must have priority in schools and kindergartens. We must introduce a ban on additional payments to Ukrainian and other pensions, and social benefits will be primarily for Poles.’
It is likely that PiS will continue Nawrocki’s strategy into the next parliamentary elections. They will attempt to win the support of those younger voters attracted to Confederation and other far-right forces. The emphasis will be less on social solidarity and conservative values, and more on social hierarchy and hostility to outsiders and those not considered ‘true Poles’.
International Alliances
The presidential elections were held against the backdrop of shifting international relations in the wake of Trump’s election in the USA. Both candidates hold broadly similar opinions on the war in Ukraine, have strong pro-US sentiments, and support investing massively in the Polish military. Nevertheless, the KO government and Trzaskowski have also supported Poland aligning more closely with other European states such as Germany and France, and support the plans to militarise the European Union. Meanwhile, PiS and Nawrocki have allied more closely with the Trump administration. The Conservative Political Action Conference held its first meeting in Poland just five days before the second round of presidential elections in Poland. At this event, Kristi Noem, the US Homeland Security Secretary, expressed her support for Nawrocki, stating: ‘If you (elect) a leader that will work with President Donald J. Trump, the Polish people will have an ally strong that will ensure that you will be able to fight off enemies that do not share your values.’
The election of Trump represents a victory for Trumpism in the region. Nawrocki agreed with Mentzen’s demands that he would not send Polish troops to Ukraine and would veto any attempt by Ukraine to become a member of NATO (Trzaskowski only signed up to the first demand). This partially reflects the changing foreign strategy of the current US administration, as well as the rising fear within Polish society about being dragged into a wider conflict over Ukraine. Nawrocki supports Poland spending even more on its military than it does now, in line with Trump’s strategy of compelling European NATO countries to increase their military capacity.
Where Now for the Left?
The Polish left continues to find itself stuck between the competing right-wing political blocs. The social democratic Lewica remains the minor partner in a three-party coalition government. After the election of Nawrocki, there is even less hope that this government will introduce the policies advocated by the Left, such as abortion reform. In such conditions, it is likely that support for Lewica will deteriorate as backing for Tusk’s government further declines. Meanwhile, the Razem party managed to secure a stronger independent political position and more voter recognition in these elections. The question posed is whether it will be able to fill the void opened by the falling support for the government and Lewica. Also, will it be able to win the support of voters looking for a pro-social alternative, as PiS moves further right on economic issues? Finally, will it find the political strength to challenge the reigning political consensus of prioritising military spending over investing in such things as energy transformation, housing, and the health service?
Cover Image: Open Meeting with Karol Nawrocki in Bielsko-Biała, December 2024.
Image credits: Photo by Silar, via Wikimedia Commons – licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
