The Polish presidential election disrupted the PiS–KO duopoly, strengthened the far right, and marked a symbolic shift within the left. What do the results reveal about the current political mood? Gavin Rae, of the think tank Naprzód (Forward)—transform! europe’s observer organisation—offers a brief reflection on the first round.
The duopoly between PiS (Law and Justice) and KO (Civic Coalition) is weakened but not broken. Rafał Trzaskowski (31%) and Krzysztof Nawrocki (30%) together gained just over 60% of the vote – the lowest share since PiS and PO/KO began dominating Polish politics in the early 2000s. This is down from 73% five years ago.
The real ‘winners’ of these elections are the far right. Sławomir Mentzen from Konfederacja (Confederation) (15%) and Grzegorz Braun (6%) received over 21% of the vote. Mentzen was by far the most popular candidate among young voters. This ‘new’ far right resembles parties like the AfD in Germany.
It combines extreme authoritarian conservatism with a kind of social Darwinist libertarianism, where the strong should prosper and not be held back by the ‘weak’. It encapsulates the most radical – and perhaps most honest – form of the neoliberal ideology that has shaped Poland over the past three decades.
The left achieved its best presidential result since 2010, with a combined vote share of around 10% for the three left-wing candidates. Notably, for the first time since 1989, a candidate from a party not rooted in the post-communist tradition – Adrian Zandberg of Razem (Together) (5%) – received the highest share of the left vote, narrowly surpassing Joanna Bejat of Lewica (The Left) (4%). While the difference is small, this symbolic moment may signal a shift within the Polish left.
Razem ran an energetic, innovative campaign, effectively using social media and becoming the second most popular choice (19%) among young voters. They also benefited from not joining Donald Tusk’s government (unlike Lewica) and positioned themselves as an anti-establishment left-wing alternative. Adrian Zandberg’s announcement that he will not endorse any candidate in the second round shows a continuation of this strategy.
The content of Razem’s campaign was left-populist – “left” in the sense of promising public investment in housing and healthcare; “populist” in avoiding the contentious issue of Poland spending nearly 5% of its GDP on defence. This stance may work in a presidential race targeting a small share of the vote, but it is not a coherent long-term position. As the saying goes: you can’t have your bread and your guns. Veteran SLD (Democratic Left Alliance) politician Joanna Senyszyn, running as an independent, received 1%.
A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that Krzysztof Nawrocki is likely to win the second round, bolstered by the strong far-right vote – though this is far from certain. Much will depend on how Rafał Trzaskowski approaches the runoff.
KO won the 2023 parliamentary elections by mobilising large numbers of dissatisfied PiS voters and by shifting leftward on various issues. But Donald Tusk’s government has since delivered little, and it is not surprising that he has been virtually invisible during this campaign. Moreover, KO has adopted a hard-right stance on topics like migrant rights – borrowing far-right rhetoric and implementing measures such as revoking asylum rights for some refugees. One of Rafał Trzaskowski’s first campaign statements was to propose cutting child benefits (800+) for unemployed Ukrainians.
Rafał Trzaskowski is counting on support from left and centre voters who fear that a Krzysztof Nawrocki victory could pave the way for a PiS-Konfederacja government in a few years (a likely scenario). However, if he continues to pursue Konfederacja voters, he may find that many centre-left voters simply stay home in the second round.
The election has been fought on the right – and will most likely be won there too.
Cover Image: People wave Polish flags during an election rally on Kraków’s Main Market Square.
Image credits: Photo by Mazaki, via Wikimedia Commons – licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.
